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Specializing in Decision and Risk
Analysis Publications
Welcome to Probabilistic Publishing, Dave and Debbie
Charlesworth, Owners.
Update August 1, 2008. Our order form is not working - sorry! If you want to place an order, please call or fax us or send me an e-mail, dave@decisions-books.com.
Update May, 2008. We have moved! Our new address is: 1702 Hodge Lake Ln, Sugar Land, TX 77478. Same phone numbers: 281-277-4006 TX and 352-338-1789 FL.
Update: We have nominated Pat Leach's book for an INFORMS award. If you'd be willing to write the INFORMS judging panel a testimonial about what Pat's book has done for you, please send me an e-mail and I'll forward the information to you (dave@decisions-books.com).
We were unable to attend DAAG this year - sorry - Dave went to the Chevron Global DA conference in Singapore instead. Will try for next year.
Why Can't You Just
Give Me The Number?
An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking
to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions
By Patrick Leach
Publication
Information: Mr. Leach's
innovative book (ISBN 0-9647938-5-7) is now available!
List price is $29.95 with a 25% discount
for DAAG, INFORMS, and AAPG members. Also, the 25% discount
is available effective October 1st for Crystal Ball (tm)
users. Call 281-277-4006 or send an e-mail to dave@decisions-books.com
today to order your copy, or click the order button to order
via our secure web site (note qualifying discount offers
in the Comment field).
Gary Bush, Managing Director of Decision Strategies,
reviewed Mr. Leach's book and wrote:
"'Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number?'
is for busy executives who have heard this familiar lament,
but are worried about the perils of being blindsided by
a pitfall or missing out on a great opportunity. Ideas for
exploring uncertainty and risk are introduced in a conversational
tone, with great analogies and case studies to illustrate
the real world use of modern decision theory. From single
decisions to business portfolio management, and from project
scheduling to budgeting, readers of this book will see how
dealing knowledgably with uncertainty and risk can become
the keys to competitive business advantage."
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Introduction to Bayesian
Inference and Decision (2nd Edition)
By Robert W. Winkler
Publication Information:
We are very pleased to be able offer the 2nd
edition of Dr. Winkler's classic Bayesian text (ISBN 0-9647938-4-9).
The book includes a CD ROM and the list price is $49.95. Please
see our products page for more
information on this book. This book is the foundational
textbook for Bayesian Inference and is a "must have"
for the decision and risk analysis practitioner or student!
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Introduction to Decision
Analysis (2nd Edition)
by David C. Skinner
Web links:
Mr. Skinner's web site is no longer active.
However, the only material which was not in the book is the
lecture notes (a pdf file), which you may request by email
to dave@decisions-books.com
The rest of the material referenced in the book consisted
of electronic versions of material in the book, which Mr.
Skinner has not provided. Please check this website in the
future for information related to Mr. Skinner's book.
3rd Edition:
The 2nd edition is almost sold out. Mr. Skinner
and his faithful editor Paul Wicker are diligently writing
the 3rd edition of his classic work; they have updated most
of the book and added new content. Please check this website
in the future for information related to the 3rd edition. |
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