Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number?

An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions
by Patrick Leach

Patrick Leach (now CEO of Decision Strategies, Incorporated) draws on his extensive consulting and teaching experience to present a compelling, insightful, and understandable case for using probabilistic analysis as part of everyday business decision-making. Practical examples and case studies are clearly presented.

Mr. Leach is an experienced conference speaker, business trainer, and consultant. He makes a clear, concise case for appropriate implementation of probabilistic analysis. Rather than get bogged down with equations and complexity, he shares his insight and the benefits of his experience (and some key research by others) in a way that is readable, useful, and memorable.

Publication Information

List price for this innovative book is $29.95.

Professional discounts area available for students, professors, Crystal Ball and At Risk users, DAAG, DAS, AAPG, SPE, and DAS members, etc.

Shipping is $5 USPS Priority Mail Flat Rate Envelope for USA orders; $10 more for International (select Int'l Professional Disc).

ISBN Number is 0-9647938-5-7. Published September, 2006. 208 Pages.

This book was designed to be an "Airplane" book - that is, it is compact, interesting, and easy to read. Note that there are 10 five-star reviews on Amazon.com - be sure to read what others have said about this breakthrough book!

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Academic Usage

Several universities and colleges are using Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number? as a book of supplemental readings within their MBA curriculum. This book can help students understand the value of probabilistic analysis and some of the decision-making traps executives should be aware of. Contact us for quantity discounts.

Reviews

"Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number? is for busy executives who have heard this familiar lament, but are worried about the perils of being blind sided by a pitfall or missing out on a great opportunity. Ideas for exploring uncertainty and risk are introduced in a conversational tone, with great analogies and case studies to illustrate the real world use of modern decision theory. From single decisions to business portfolio management, and from project scheduling to budgeting, readers of this book will see how dealing knowledgeably with uncertainty and risk can become the keys to competitive business advantage." —Gary Bush, former Managing Director, DSI

“Decision-making 101 for executives – a solid overview of the key decision analysis concepts sprinkled with pearls of wisdom and wry humor... What could be intimidating concepts to communicate are presented clearly and illustratively. Today’s executive requires an understanding and command of the language of risk, uncertainty and decision-making. Mr. Leach’s handbook is an excellent and efficient introduction to these ‘must know’ constructs.” –Dr. Robert Ameo, Director, Bus Dev, Medical Devices and Diagnostics Group, J & J.

“I found myself thinking of specific applications to decisions we are making at Marubeni.” –Matthew Cabell, Executive Vice President and General Manager, Marubeni Oil & Gas

“…it challenges the reader to think in ways he may not normally think, but are the ways he should be thinking…. Chapter 10 should be required reading for every buyer of Microsoft Project.” –Fred Gibson, President, The George R. Brown Partnership.

“Complex concepts are explained simply, but not simplistically. As I read it, I kept finding ideas and methods that we can use in my company.” –Richard Omlor, CEO and President, YSI Inc.

“This book is a must read for those who deal with executives and decision makers.” –David Skinner, former Managing Director, Decision Strategies, and author, “Introduction to Decision Analysis.”

About Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number?

Here's the "rest of the story" about Number? (which has not been told elsewhere).

In the mid 2000's, Pat and I were both working at DSI. I heard from one of my colleagues that he had written an excellent manuscript and I asked him about it. He had shopped it to the "majors" and one of them expressed some interest. I told him that we'd be interested in the project and to keep Probabilistic Publishing in mind.

A few months later, I checked with Pat, and the "major" publishing house was still expressing some interest. However, several months after that, I went to Pat and caught him in a good moment and re-expressed our interest. He thought for a minute, and then said, "Let's do it."

Upon reading his manuscript for the first time, we were excited. There are things in this book that you will not find anywhere else. Pat's writing was so strong that we only did minimal editing. There were several passionate lunch-time discussions during which Pat and I debated several of the DA-related items contained within the book, and we ended up with a product of which we are both very proud. By late 2009 we were sold out of the first printing, so we completed a second printing in February, 2010.

From the Book: Table of Contents


Why Can’t You Just Give Me the Number?............................................ 1
The Root of All Value ............................................................ 7
 Uncertainty as a Source of Value ............................................... 9
Dealing with an Uncertain World ................................................. 15
 If We Ignore Uncertainty, Will it Go Away? .................................... 16
 Buried in Paper ............................................................... 19
 High Enough For You?........................................................... 20
Steps in the Right Direction .................................................... 25
 Tornado Warnings .............................................................. 30
 Seeing the Forest for the Trees ............................................... 33
 Monte Carlo Simulation: “What Ifs” on Steroids ................................ 38
Improving the Odds of Success ................................................... 45
 How Fear of CLMs Causes CEs to be Less Than EVs, Thereby Reducing NPVs ........ 46
 Remaining Neutral ............................................................. 47
It’s All in Your Head ........................................................... 57
 It’s All Relative – But Should it Be? ........................................ 59
 Reference Frames 1: The Plague ............................................... 60
 Reference Frames 2: Projects and Portfolios .................................. 61
 Losses vs. Costs ............................................................. 63
 Standing on the Fulcrum ...................................................... 64
 No Doubt ..................................................................... 65
 Pain and Pleasure: Two Sides of a Loaded Coin ................................ 66
 Mine’s Better Than Yours ..................................................... 67
 The Tip of the Iceberg ....................................................... 68
Contingent Probabilities ....................................................... 71
 Paired Product Launches ...................................................... 72
 The Gold Mine ................................................................ 78
Which Number Do You Want? ...................................................... 85
 Of Medians and Men............................................................ 93
Rolling Up the Numbers Without Getting Flattened ............................... 99
 The Portfolio Effect ........................................................ 101
 Dependencies and Correlations ............................................... 104
Late and Over Budget – Project Management Issues .............................. 108
 Near-Critical-Path Activities ............................................... 110
 The Portfolio Effect and Right-Skewed Probability Distributions ............. 113
 Getting MAIMed............................................................... 119
What It’s All About: Decisions ................................................ 123
 Combatting Randomness ....................................................... 126
 A Brief Sojourn Into the World of Decision Analysis ......................... 128
 The Option Play ............................................................. 133
 Following the Plan .......................................................... 138
How Much Is That Data in the Window? .......................................... 141
 The Value of Information in an Imperfect World .............................. 142
 The Deadly Disease .......................................................... 144
 The Video Rental Store ...................................................... 146
 The Value of Control (VOC) .................................................. 152
 Fighting Analysis Paralysis ................................................. 154
Optimization and the Efficient Frontier ....................................... 159
 Go for the Gusto, or Play It Safe? .......................................... 168
Dangerous Curves Ahead – Statistical Quirks and Traps ......................... 171
 The Trap: Believing that Improbable Equals Impossible ....................... 172
 The Trap: Selective Statistics .............................................. 175
Final Thoughts ................................................................ 179
Bibliography .................................................................. 183
Glossary ...................................................................... 184
Appendix ...................................................................... 189
 The Shell Game............................................................... 189
Index ......................................................................... 195