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Introduction
to Bayesian Inference and Decision, 2nd Edition (ISBN
0-9647938-4-9) The basic concepts of Bayesian inference
and decision have not really changed since the first edition
of this book was published in 1972. Even so, Bayesian inference
and decision has been a very fertile and rapidly growing
field, both in terms of theoretical/methodological research
and in terms of real-world applications. This book gives
a solid foundation in the basic concepts, enables readers
to understand the results of analyses in Bayesian inference
and decision, provides tools to allow readers to model real-world
problems and carry out basic analyses, and prepares readers
for further explorations in Bayesian inference and decision.
In the second edition, material has been added on some topics,
examples and exercises have been updated, and perspectives
have been added to each chapter and the end of the book
to indicate how the field has changed and to give some new
references. Order your copy today by contacting Probabilistic
Publishing via email.
About the Author
Robert L. Winkler
is James B. Duke Professor in the Fuqua School of Business,
Duke University. He also holds appointments in the Institute
of Statistics and Decision Sciences and in the Center for
Clinical Health Policy Research at Duke. Professor Winkler's
teaching interests include statistics and decision analysis.
His primary research areas include Bayesian statistics,
decision analysis, risk analysis, and forecasting. He was
awarded the Frank P. Ramsey Medal for significant contributions
to decision analysis and he has also been a recipient of
the NCNB Faculty Award in the Fuqua School of Business and
the Distinguished Teaching Award from Duke's first Global
Executive MBA Class.
Introduction
to Decision Analysis, 2nd Edition
(ISBN: 0964793830) is a practical, step-by-step guide to
making better decisions. The book is designed for the practicing
manager, technical professional, and decision analyst. Mr.
Skinner provides proven techniques based on solid experience
to help face complex, challenging, uncertain, and ambiguous
choices. Decision analysis provides a process whereby all
parties affected by the decision can be involved and participate
in building a win-win solution. New to the second edition
of Mr. Skinner's classic text are: new thinking about uncertainty
and ambiguity, Monte Carlo simulation, guides to implementing
large projects, "How 2" guides, and full interactive
integration with Mr. Skinner's web site. Click
Here to download a flyer about Introduction to Decision
Analysis, 2nd Edition. Order
your copy today!
From
the Author
My goal in writing this book is to provide a practical resource
for anyone who wants to make better decisions. I use real
world business and personal cases to illustrate the principles
of decision analysis and stories to describe what works
and what does not work. The First Edition has been used
successfully in both industrial and academic settings, and
I'm very pleased to be able to offer much more information
with this edition.
From the Back Cover
As decision makers, we often face complex, challenging,
uncertain, and often ambiguous choices. When making these
choices, we can follow our intuition or "gut"
instincts, or we can pursue a more analytical approach.
Decision analysis provides a process whereby all parties
affected by the decision can be involved and participate
in building a win-win solution.
