Specializing in Decision and Risk
Analysis Publications

Welcome to Probabilistic Publishing, Dave and Debbie Charlesworth, Owners.

Update October 4, 2008. New order policy: All bookstores must now pre-pay. We regret the inconvenience, however, we don't have a choice - we're spending too much unproductive time working to collect payments. However, we are increasing our standard bookstore discount - please inquire.

Update August 1, 2008. Our order form is not working - sorry! If you want to place an order, please call or fax us or send me an e-mail, dave@decisions-books.com.

Update May, 2008. We have moved! Our new address is: 1702 Hodge Lake Ln, Sugar Land, TX 77478. Same phone numbers: 281-277-4006 TX and 352-338-1789 FL.


Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number?

An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions

By Patrick Leach

Publication Information: Mr. Leach's innovative book (ISBN 0-9647938-5-7) is now available! List price is $29.95 with a 25% discount for DAAG, INFORMS, and AAPG members. Also, the 25% discount is available effective October 1st for Crystal Ball (tm) users. Call 281-277-4006 or send an e-mail to dave@decisions-books.com today to order your copy, or click the order button to order via our secure web site (note qualifying discount offers in the Comment field).

Gary Bush, Managing Director of Decision Strategies, reviewed Mr. Leach's book and wrote:

"'Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number?' is for busy executives who have heard this familiar lament, but are worried about the perils of being blindsided by a pitfall or missing out on a great opportunity. Ideas for exploring uncertainty and risk are introduced in a conversational tone, with great analogies and case studies to illustrate the real world use of modern decision theory. From single decisions to business portfolio management, and from project scheduling to budgeting, readers of this book will see how dealing knowledgably with uncertainty and risk can become the keys to competitive business advantage."


Introduction to Bayesian
Inference and Decision (2nd Edition)

By Robert W. Winkler

Publication Information: We are very pleased to be able offer the 2nd edition of Dr. Winkler's classic Bayesian text (ISBN 0-9647938-4-9). The book includes a CD ROM and the list price is $49.95. Please see our products page for more information on this book. This book is the foundational textbook for Bayesian Inference and is a "must have" for the decision and risk analysis practitioner or student!

 



Introduction to Decision Analysis (2nd Edition)

by David C. Skinner

Web links: Mr. Skinner's web site is no longer active. However, the only material which was not in the book is the lecture notes (a pdf file), which you may request by email to dave@decisions-books.com The rest of the material referenced in the book consisted of electronic versions of material in the book, which Mr. Skinner has not provided. Please check this website in the future for information related to Mr. Skinner's book.

3rd Edition: The 2nd edition is almost sold out. Mr. Skinner and his faithful editor Paul Wicker are diligently writing the 3rd edition of his classic work; they have updated most of the book and added new content. Please check this website in the future for information related to the 3rd edition.


   

© 2003 Probabilistic Publishing

 

Original Website design by Alexa Bargmann of Decision Strategies.

Thank you, Alexa!